Industry Predictions & Reflections from the Logistics Frontline

A new year brings a new set of predictions and, this year, a collective sigh of relief from all of us in the industry.  We made it to 2025 - a little bruised and with a few new battle scars - but we’ve survived the past two years.

The ‘Freightcession’, which Craig Fuller declared dead at the end of 2024, led to a capacity correction that unfortunately forced several truckload carriers, intermodal providers, and intermediaries to close their doors. While transportation providers’ costs have risen over the last 5 years, the rate per mile we charge our clients has remained flat to invoices from 2019, making for a tough market for everyone.

However, it appears the tides are shifting. The demand for shipped goods now seems to outpace current capacity, and shippers are showing renewed interest in service quality. These shifts have us at Trailer Bridge energized and excited; we’re finally back in a market where shipment volumes are increasing, and we can demonstrate our industry-leading service across all modes of transportation.

While I may have missed the mark on several of my 2024 predictions, I believe this year the stage is set for a stronger performance. Let’s dive in and see where I missed the mark and where we’re headed next.

Ocean

Trans-Pacific Container Pricing

The ocean container market experienced a volatile rate environment in 2024, with strong headwinds carried over from 2023. We started 2024 with container spot pricing hovering around $10k, and I predicted rates would level out in the $3-4k range. What I didn’t anticipate were the capacity issues that left freight stuck and pricing soaring high.

While pricing eased in the latter half of the year, costs began to spike again as questions about potential tariffs, continued discord in the Red Sea, and possible labor stoppages made headlines. Thankfully, the International Longshoremen’s Association reached a successful deal for its master contract which has certainly eased some uneasiness for shippers and providers alike.

Looking ahead, it’s really “anyone’s guess,” but I’m confident the businesses that build flexibility into their supply chains will have the most success in 2025.

TEU Capacity

I’ve correctly predicted the peak monthly U.S. container import volume (TEUs) for two years in a row now. According to my friends at Descartes, the peak volume for 2024 fell in July at 2.5 million TEUs – right where I anticipated.

Can I get it right three years in a row?  Let’s find out.  I’m predicting another increase in 2025, despite the anticipated disruption and uneasiness, with U.S. monthly volume peaking at 2.6 million import TEUs.

Truckload

DAT Monthly Dry Van Spot Rates

Big miss here: I was more than 10 percent off in my 2024 predictions, and we certainly felt it. The peak for 2024 Dry Van DAT spot rates was at the start of the year, at $2.14 per mile in January.

As we start 2025 at $2.21 per mile, it seems likely that this number will increase for the first time since 2021. Morgan Stanley is projecting a $0.30 increase in rates over the next 12 months. My prediction? We’ll hit a peak rate of $2.44 per mile in 2025.

Class 8 Truck Orders

My bullish prediction for Class 8 Truck Orders didn’t materialize in 2024. I was off by about 15%, with the peak occurring in November at 34k units.

But I’m not letting that miss stop me. For 2025, I’m sticking to my bullish stance and predicting a peak order of 45k units. The Bill Gates Foundation’s recent stock purchase in Paccar suggests I’m not the only one looking for an increase in truck purchases in 2025.

Fuel

With a peak diesel price of $4.109 in 2024, I missed the mark by $0.64 cents.  Fortunately for everyone, the actual price at the pump was lower than my prediction.

I don’t watch a ton of TV, but my wife and I have started watching the Paramount+ show “Landman”.  The show follows the character Tommy, played by Billy Bob Thornton, through his days navigating the world of Texas oil and gas. It really puts into perspective how a gallon of fuel gets from the ground to our gas tanks. I highly recommend anyone looking for a new show in 2025 to add it to their watch list.

Inspired by my newfound knowledge, I’m predicting a peak weekly national average diesel price of $4.44 per gallon, aligning with anticipated transportation cost increases and demand for shipped goods.

Sports

I count my 2024 sports prediction as a partial win. The Niners made it all the way to the Super Bowl against the Kansas City Chiefs, but they weren’t able to take it the distance, and lost in overtime to Patrick Mahomes and company.

Since I’ve technically missed my football prediction the last 2 years I’m going to try a different approach.  Let’s make some golf predictions:

• Players: Ludvig Aberg, a new resident of the First Coast
• Masters: Rory McIlroy finally completes the Career Grand Slam
• PGA Championship: Max Homa gets first major
• US Open Championship: Scottie Scheffler
• Open Championship: Tommy Fleetwood also gets first major
• Ryder Cup: USA wins!!!

Looking Forward

2024 was a tough year, made easier by the incredible team we have at Trailer Bridge. They showed grit, perseverance, and patience, proving their dedication to each other, our carriers and our customers.

I’m energized as I look ahead to 2025. Our industry is welcoming state-of-the-art technology that is changing the game, the market is correcting itself, and I know our team is ready to deliver the award-winning service shippers will need to succeed.

I’m kicking the year off at Manifest in Las Vegas February 10-12 and look forward to connecting with my industry friends and making new ones. See you there!